Projection of some Fertility Indicators of UP, India using MCMC Technique in Bayesian Procedure

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Projection of some Fertility Indicators of UP, India using MCMC Technique in Bayesian Procedure

Author Affiliations

¹Department of Statistics Udai Pratap Autonomous College, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, INDIA
²Department of Statistics Udai Pratap Autonomous College, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, INDIA

Res. J. Mathematical & Statistical Sci., Volume 3, Issue (7), Pages 9-14, July,12 (2015)

Abstract

In the present paper we have projected the Age Specific Fertility and Total Fertility Rate of Uttar Pradesh using Gompertz model, assuming lower and upper asymptotes from the past estimates of Age Specific Fertility rate of Uttar Pradesh. Parameters of the model have been estimated using MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) Technique in Bayesian Procedure. We have assumed Non-informative prior distribution to implement the Bayesian approach for the parameter estimation.

References

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[ref1] Congdon P., Bayesian Statistical Modeling, John Wileyand Sons, Chichester, U.K., (2001)

[ref2] Dyson T., India’s Population-The Future, in T. Dyson R.Cassen and L. Visaria, Eds., Twenty-First Century India:Population, Economy, Human Development, and theEnvironment. Press, Oxford, 74-10., (2004)

[ref3] Gelman A., Carlin J.B., Stern H.S. and Rubin D.B., Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Champmanand Hall/CRC, (2003)
Google Scholar

[ref4] Gilks W.R. Richardson S. and Spiegelhalter D.J., Eds., Markov chain Monte Carlo in Practice, Champman andHall, London, U.K., (1996)

[ref5] Gill J., Bayesian Methods: A Social and BehavioralSciences Approach, Champman and Hall/CRC., (2002)
Google Scholar

[ref6] Rahul and Singh O.P., Population Projection Of IndianUsing MCMC Technique in Bayesian Theory (2011-2051), published by LAP LAMBERT AcademicPublishing, Germany, (2012)

[ref7] Rahul Pandey G.S. and Singh O.P., PopulationProjection Of India Using MCMC Technique: AWinBUGS Implementation, Demography India, NewDelhi, India, 36(1), 145-154, (2007)
Google Scholar

[ref8] Rahul Singh G.P. and Singh O.P., Population Projectionof Kerala Using Bayesian Methodology, Asian Journalof Applied Sciences, 2(4), 402-413, (2009)
Google Scholar

[ref9] Registrar General Of India,, Population Projection forIndia and States 2001-2026, Office of the RegistrarGeneral and Census Commissioner, India, (2006)
Google Scholar

[ref10] Spiegelhalter D.J. Thomas, A. Best N.G. and GilksW.R., BUGS, Bayesian inference Using GibbsSampling, Version 0.5. MRC Biostatistics Unit,Cambridge, (1996)
Google Scholar